by Avraham Ebenstein, Robert Wood Johnson Scholar in Health Policy at Harvard University & Lecturer, Department of Economics, Hebrew University
The 'Missing Girls' of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy
Abstract
High ratios of males to females in China have concerned researchers (Sen 1990, Yi et al. 1993) and the recent increase has alarmed policymakers worldwide. This paper presents an analysis of China’s census data that indicates that the “missing girls” phenomenon is causally linked to enforcement of the One Child Policy. Fertility is lower and sex ratios are higher among those under stricter fertility control, and the overall increase in the sex ratio is driven by an increase in the prevalence of sex selection among first and second births. By exploiting regional and temporal variation in fines levied for unauthorized births, I find that higher fine regimes discourage fertility, but are associated with higher ratios of males to females.
Conclusion
The lesson to policymakers in family planning is this: encouraging or forcing people to change their fertility behavior without addressing their fundamental preferences may have unanticipated consequences. Although the future course of Chinese policy is yet to be determined, the discussion has now appropriately turned to revising the current regulations (Feng 2005, Yi 2007). A relaxation in the One Child Policy could reduce the sex ratio at birth by allowing more parents to have a son without resorting to sex selection. Failure to act may prove costly for the next generation.
To read full article, click here: http://pluto.huji.ac.il/~ebenstein/Ebenstein_OneChildPolicy_2010.pdf
